Prognostication

I am not in the business of telling, you, myself, or anyone, what people are going to do in the future. That is a fool's business. Or a psychic's. I am neither.

Extrapolation, on the other hand, is rooted in mathematics. Now, I'm not about to rattle my SABRE, heh, but I will say that the first couple of innings usually tell me what the end result will be. The key word is usually, and I'll get back to that.

The Mess were done before they started last night. They looked dead. Who knows how many of them even knew Eaton's record against them? As it is, those wonderfully didactic ESPN commentators let us know that knowledge of the opposing pitcher was varied and inaccurate based on interviewing a few of the Mess players, and then, for reasons still unknown to me, bifurcated the answers into those from right-handed batters, and the lefties. As if left-handedness improves? memory. (Yes, there's a question mark before the end of the sentence. Use your right- or left-handedness to figure it out.)

Whether we assume the entire team, or no one, knew of Eaton's success, both extrapolation and prognostication can fail for one very simple reason - the independence of events.

Probability models show that if you flip an unbiased coin infinite times, you'll get a 50-50 split on average. In actuality, you will be hard pressed to even flip the coin just ten times to get 5 heads and 5 tails. And that's just a coin! Imagine all the factors at play just for one pitch from a pitcher. I'm not going to list any of them - the situation is already mind-boggling.

So, on average, with a pitcher who's been successful against the Mess on the mound, and the players looking like they're getting ready to do their taxes instead of playing ball, I'm going to turn off the game and find something less heartbreaking to do.

Yes, they did get to Eaton in the sixth. Yes, the Mess fans were cheering in the stands. But then that guy who was hitting all those homers ahead of or behind Bonds in San Francisco put one out. And Feliciano had no business pitching against him. I don't care what his numbers are against right-handed batters.

And then Rollins' sub put the nail in the coffin. The Mess are pissed, and didn't hide their feelings from the reporters.

And how did I spend my Sunday? I got some work done, and came up with the idea for this article.